Houston Astros at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The New York Mets (39-39) welcome the Houston Astros (40-40) to Citi Field Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:1- p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’slines around the Astros vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Astros won 2 of 3 meetings in 2023

The Mets beat the New York Yankees in back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday, closing the 2-game series with a dominant 12-2 victory. New York has won 3 in a row and 4 of its last 5 games, closing as an underdog in each victory. It is 11-2 in its last 13. New York hasn’t been as strong as expected at home with just a 20-23 record at Citi Field.

The Astros, who are 16-21 in road games, are also hot, riding a 7-game win streak. In that streak was a 3-game home sweep over the Baltimore Orioles, who sit 2nd in the AL East. Houston is coming off a 7-1 home win over the Colorado Rockies Wednesday. It is just 3-4 over its last 7 on the road though.

Astros at Mets projected starters

RHP Ronel Blanco vs. LHP Jose Quintana

Blanco (8-2, 2.34 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 84 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 5-1 home win over the Baltimore Orioles Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 5-0, 1.98 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 5 HR, 9.2 K/9 in 6 starts
• Has never faced the Mets

Quintana (3-5, 4.58 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 78 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in an 11-1 road win over the Chicago Cubs Friday
• 2024 home splits: 1-3, 3.49 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9 HR, 6.3 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 3-1, 2.96 ERA (48 2/3 IP,16 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 10 appearances (8 starts)

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Astros at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros -116 (bet $116 to win $100) | Mets -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+136) | Mets +1.5 (-164)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)

Astros at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET ASTROS (-116).

The Astros have been unstoppable with Blanco on the mound, posting an 11-3 record when he starts. They are 5-1 in road games he has started as well. Blanco has allowed more than 2 ER in just 3 starts. With Houston having tallied at least 5 runs in 6 straight games, having that pitching advantage could be the deciding factor as its offense has been producing at a high level.

While the Mets are hot, they may struggle to keep pace with Quintana on the mound. New York is 4-5 straight up in his last 9 starts. New York has scored 5 or fewer in 3 of its last 6. Considering the trends of the starters here, back ASTROS (-116).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The value here is on the moneyline, although the Astros -1.5 (+136) on the run line as a plus-money favorite isn’t a bad play given their pitching advantage. Regardless, the moneyline is the suggested play here.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-102).

The Astros are 28-48-4 O/U on the season and are 2-6-1 O/U in their last 9 games. Blanco has gone Under in his last 11 starts with the Astros allowing exactly 1 run in his last 3.

While the Mets are a more Over-prone side, they are still 7-9 O/U in their last 16 and are 1-2 O/U in Quintana’s last 3 starts. Considering those trends, back UNDER 8.5 (-102).

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